Running the Numbers

 I found myself involved in a bit of an online dispute the other day when I replied to a comment on a friend’s Facebook thread about the coronavirus. I’m sure you’ve heard this one: the conventional flu kills thousands of people every year too. The implication is, of course, that what’s happening now is overblown by the media. But even the President has had to concede that this virus is a “thing.” If we do a good job, he and the experts say, we can limit deaths to maybe 80 thousand people, or perhaps 100- or 200 thousand.

Shocking numbers indeed, but it all depends on what we’re measuring against. This week, we were told, the US death toll for the coronavirus surged past the number killed on 9/11. Well, that was an apple, and this is a pretty big orange. If we’re going to compare it to anything, the obvious candidate is the so-called Spanish Flu of 1918 and ’19. Yes, it covered portions of two years, and there were three waves of it, killing some 675,000 Americans. So if we lose “only” 150K now, we will be doing relatively well.

One thing that’s curious to me is why the Spanish Flu didn’t rank higher in our history books. Even today, if you say 1918, I bet most people first think of World War I, Armistice Day and related events. But it’s also said that many of the US troops President Woodrow Wilson sent abroad to fight the war in Europe were carrying the deadly flu, and that the disease killed more soldiers than war did.

If geographic correctness were applied, it should have been called the American Flu, because it likely started here. There are different versions of its origins. One says it was caused by a nasty cloud created by the burning of a huge pile of hog manure at Fort Riley, Kansas; another says it was the result of vaccine experiments conducted on troops stationed there.

The number 675,000 was a very significant portion of the US population at the time, I bet if many of us today were to shake our family trees just a little, it would be no surprise to find someone who fell out of one of its branches, lost to that plague of more than a century ago.

I have a strong feeling that COVID-19 will get the attention it deserves in new history books and other media products devoted to reminding future generations of what went on here. That’s a good thing if it keeps our descendants from making the same mistakes some of us are making now – things we should have learned from 1918.

Little Questions and Big Ones

The coronavirus has sent the human race abruptly into what seems like uncharted territory to most. There are still a lot more questions than answers. Here are a few questions that have occurred to me, in no particular order or rank.

*Is the coronavirus bringing out the best in people, or the worst? Over time, which of those will win?

*Is God, or the Universe, or Mother Nature, or the planet (take your pick) sending us a message? For example, will the forced world slowdown caused by the disease buy us some time on climate change?

*Will the fly-over states now become fly-into states, perceived as safer, less crowded, and cheaper places to live? What will happen to property values?

*What will be the effects on the birth rate? Will social distancing mean fewer humans will be conceived, or, if couples are forced to stay home with each other, will it result in more babies? When the coronavirus is over, will there be a population explosion, a whole new set of Boomers?

*How will the coronavirus affect elections? Will states and counties make absentee voting more available? Will coronavirus dominate the debate going forward, to the exclusion of all other issues, or will it affect all those issues? Since these are not normal times by any stretch, should the national election be delayed? (Calm down there, that’s just a question).

*How soon will things bounce back after the coronavirus? Bounce back to what, exactly?

*What is work as we know it going to look like on the other side? Will the big companies allow more employees to work from home permanently? Will those companies decide they don’t need floors full of people in cubicles anymore? What will they do with the extra space? What effects will there be on lifestyles?

*As individuals, what is now important to us, and what is now trivial? What don’t we worry about now, that we used to? What constitutes feeling what we think of as “normal”?

*And finally – again, as individuals, are we ready for death, not only legally, but emotionally and spiritually? Not that it has to happen now, but…so when WILL we be ready?

Some of these questions demand a more or less immediate answer, and others don’t. It’s OK to express hope, but is it also OK to say, we just don’t know, for now?

COVID-19, Now Playing Everywhere

When I first came out to California from the East in the 1970s, I landed in Hollywood and had an unpaid role in a friend’s student film. I had to play a dead body -- kind of a challenge, as the Method was no help with this role. Later, I moved to a resort city that was often a location for feature films. Many friends got jobs as extras. I could never take the time off work for that. But now, I feel like a character in a disaster movie. I only wish that were true; then, the story would be over in two hours.

We have a somewhat confused former TV personality playing the role of President. Not the greatest casting, as the part calls for a little more gravitas. I guess Morgan Freeman wasn’t available. 

Seems like every day now, the screenwriter arrives on set with script changes, and we all have to learn new parts because of the coronavirus. Many of us now find ourselves working from home. I have actually been doing this for years, but likely for many of you, it will be an adjustment. It sounds a lot better than it is in some ways. You have become used to a familiar routine which maybe included things you hated, like the commute, annoying co-workers, or an unreasonable boss. It may surprise you that you will find yourself missing some of these things. Maybe there was actually a little camaraderie. If you commuted by yourself, maybe that car trip was “alone” time, unavailable at work or a home with a noisy family. And now, you may have to be a teacher too.

Technology is saving us from some of the pain. We’ve been trained lately to hate Facebook and similar social media outlets, repeatedly told how we are being manipulated and our data stolen. But now these platforms may help us keep our sanity. We need that outside human connection, even a virtual one, beyond the family, or even the  dog, cat or other pet if we live alone. Further, the bosses may find they don’t need a floor full of folks in cubicles anymore. The traffic will become livable again. As we learn new dance steps, so to speak, our carbon footprints could shrink. A good thing for climate change, perhaps.

Safely seated in our old familiar routines,  some of us may have felt like members of a movie audience. The cataclysms of other places and other times were distant curiosities, but films showed us what it was like to live through them.

Now, we all have parts as extras or in speaking roles in this new production.  Like Scarlett (not Johansson), we may look out at the golden sky and say, “Tomorrow is another day!” We just have to get through today’s shoot first.

COVID-19 and Our Better Angels

Disasters like fires, earthquakes, floods, tornados, and hurricanes often generate lovely stories about neighbors helping neighbors. Not so much with the coronavirus. Our neighbor might be the enemy.

Emergency situations often produce panic buying, but the crowds out now are a little more rabid, seeking hand sanitizer and toilet paper. Not unlike Black Friday folks but just a little meaner. Scoring a cheap flat-screen TV is one thing, but perceived survival is quite another. And then, there are the gougers trying to make money off the desperation of others.

Along with them are what I call CoronaNazis: people who glare at you if you so much as sniffle. Maybe you have a friend or family member who’s upset with you because you aren’t panicking like they are. God deliver you if you show up to work with a cold. You don’t get points for being a trouper. (That last word has the letter  “u” in it, by the way).

Does the coronavirus have a purpose? Is it payback for eating fellow mammals? In my dark moods I think it’s Mother Nature’s way of thinning out the herd. But It’s also a reminder that we don’t always have the control over things that we think we do. If someone had told you a couple of months ago that the stock market would crash, that conventions, festivals, concerts, and sports events would be cancelled, or that iconic international tourist spots would be empty, would you have believed them?

Another illusion is that of independence. We are finding out how much of what we take for granted comes from elsewhere. Even if we make something here, we need some of the parts rom there.

The global character of this challenge is both the bad news and the good. The Bible says God is no respecter of persons. Neither is COVID-19. It’s not about geography, race, color, creed, gender, sexual orientation, political party, socioeconomic status, or even moral standing. It’s nobody’s fault. The cooties are the same for everyone. Some of us may think of climate change as some distant abstraction, but the coronavirus is right here. We really are all in this together.

So let’s do our part to be practical, seek out the facts, avoid panic, learn patience, and treat each other with respect, and we’ll get through this. The human race has been through worse, and we’re still here.

Feahhh Itself

We’re all familiar with the saying about the cure being worse than the disease – which probably isn’t true all that often. But FEAR certainly is worse. We have been advised not to panic about the coronavirus, but are we taking that advice? The stock market has been collapsing, meetings are being cancelled, schools are closing in many countries, and the face-mask makers can’t keep up with the demand.

There are some scary things about the coronavirus for sure. There is no cure, and it spreads rapidly. But if you catch it, there’s a way better-than-even chance you’re going to survive. According to reports, the majority of those who do come down with COVID-19 experience only mild symptoms. Yes, the death rate is higher than with the typical seasonal flu, but ALL flus are deadly to some.

My view is a contrary one. I am not an epidemiologist, but I wonder whether quarantine is working. I can see how it can slow the spread of the disease, but in this case, I think the horse has already left the barn. The US testing capability is way below what it should be. I have a sneaking suspicion that if the whole American population were tasted, there would be many thousands coming up positive for coronavirus. You may be carrying it yourself, though you don’t yet present symptoms.

So what do we do about it as individuals? Certainly it’s always a good idea this time of year to wash your hands frequently, catch sudden sneezes in your sleeve  or even lighten up on handshaking. But how far do we need to go in altering our lifestyles? Do we stop going to restaurants, movies, sports events, cocktail parties, or even family gatherings? Catching the disease from a family member is exactly the same as getting it from a stranger. Do we shun those people or lock ourselves up?

The stock market is a good barometer of hope and fear, but is not always reasonable. You may feel rushed to sell a stock that has fallen in recent days, but the product that stock represents hasn’t changed. Yes, there are supply chain problems, but are they permanent? Is the economy going to be allowed to grind to a halt?

It’s our bad luck that we don’t have the national leadership we need at this moment. The President feels this is just another hoax, and says that some miracle will cause the coronavirus to disappear. He’s dead wrong about the hoax and very likely wrong about the miracle bit, but not about the ending, which may come later than we’d like. But the coronavirus WILL end, just like SARS, H1N1, the Asian and even the Spanish flus before it. For the most part, our species absorbs these things and comes out on the other side, though sometimes not without great cost. In the meantime, science may come up with a solution that keeps this disease and its cousins from visiting us again.

Life itself is a risk. You could come down suddenly with any number of diseases or conditions much more serious than coronavirus, for which there is also no cure and that you could not have avoided.

Governments may be either prompt or slow to react to this crisis. But in the end, we as individuals are responsible for our own level of fear, and with what attitude we confront what lies ahead of us in our own lives.