Is Putin's Ego Assad's Nightmare?

News reports coming out of the talks in Mexico indicate that Syrian President Bashir al-Asssad may no longer have Vladimir Putin watching his back.

This shift ties in with a cable commentator’s recent observation about Putin. The same guy who shows off his bare chest to his people, she said, clearly cares what the world thinks of him, and would ideally like to be cast as the hero in this situation.

Heroism might have applied 13,000-plus fatalities ago, but if Putin really is pulling the plug on Assad, at least the ball appears to be moving forward. The question of course is, forward to what?

Personally, I’d be satisfied, as I said earlier, if the Russians offered the Assad family a nice dacha on the Black Sea as an enticement to leave Syria. But in light of what many Syrians and much of the world consider Assad’s war crimes, the challenge, even for Russia, might be getting him and his family out alive.

Which brings us back to “then what?” Removing Assad is only the beginning of the story. There are plenty of Syrians with revenge in their hearts, and many factions will be jockeying for power. I’m reminded of the scenes in the movie “Lawrence of Arabia” in which various Arab tribes are vying for control of Damascus. One tribe has occupied the water works, another the electric power generating system, and very little is working.

That’s quaint compared to the present situation. Rebel forces in Syria now will likely insist on a purge of Alawites – Assad’s sect of Islam – from government. But some of these people clearly are going to be needed to help run whatever new government follows. There are plenty of non-Alawites who have benefited for decades from the current power structure and won’t be happy to see it changed.

Will all these parties have enough sense to sit down and come up with some scheme to share power, or will they insist on fighting it out? Will the rest of the world be compelled to put “boots on the ground” in Syria to keep the factions apart? If that happens, will the West – or the East, for that matter -- be able to resist the temptation to nation-build? As if there aren’t enough concerns, Syria may end up as a sideshow to what could happen in Iran.