The Ones We Didn't Get

With all the suffering, pain, grief, and yes, inconvenience that COVID has caused us, it’s only because we haven’t built it in to our experience as humans, especially those of us in the First World. I’m reminded of scourges just as bad or even worse that just don’t happen to us anymore. Take polio, for instance. Parents in the 1950s were scared to death of it. They wouldn’t let their children swim in public pools, or even mix too much with strangers. But the Salk and Sabin vaccines made it go away. It’s almost gone from the Earth, or we’re just immune to it now.

How often do we hear about someone getting tuberculosis? Or smallpox? If it weren’t for the Bible, most of us wouldn’t know what leprosy is, and the bubonic plague, which wiped out hundreds of thousands in medieval and later times, is now found mostly in squirrels. These things have been defeated by old-fashioned herd immunity, and more recently by public health and pharmaceutical research. Our batting average is pretty good, but COVID got past us. What we need to remember, of course, is that these plagues are part of human history and happen periodically, and we need the machinery in place to deal with them when they come along.

This year, we needed a miracle, and we have the next best thing: a vaccine – actually a family of them – produced with astounding speed and equally astounding reported effectiveness. Now, we need to get this stuff into people. Beyond facing those folks who are resistant to getting shots, there will undoubtedly be some logistical glitches. The vaccines are supposed to be administered equitably, but I think a few billionaires, celebrities, athletes, and politicians will somehow find their way to the head of the line. I’m OK with being a ways down the list. I can sit back and see how the first recipients do, as there will be side effects.

The light at the end of this particular tunnel may seem a little dim at the moment -- so close, and yet so far away, but we have been through long tunnels before. They say that when the great plague of centuries ago finally came to an end, the population celebrated with wine and orgies. I don’t know about the latter, but it might not be too soon right now to raise a glass of something good. 

Two Thanksgivings in 2021?

 I’ve never been a big one for Thanksgiving, because I always found myself giving thanks that things could have been worse for me, but I dodged the bullet. Others, of course, were not so lucky. This year, though, I’m giving thanks for another reason: Things are going to get better.

We are still in the middle of one of the worst disasters of our lifetime, the coronavirus pandemic. While I am safe at home typing this, there are thousands of overworked health care professionals trying to keep formerly healthy people alive, and there are many smaller Thanksgiving tables with empty chairs, and many of the survivors of the lost are getting their holiday meal fixings from a food bank or having it served to them at a soup kitchen.

Shocking as it may sound, I firmly believe we have the coronavirus to thank for protecting us as a country from something worse: four more years of what we are already seeing shrink in our rear-view mirrors. Many other things may have been overlooked or even forgiven by much of the electorate, but the failure of the current administration to deal effectively with the pandemic was what tipped the scale, at least in my opinion.

This is America, so we somehow manage to get the leadership and the scientific breakthroughs we need just before it all falls apart. There is no question that the storm isn’t over; the waves will be just as high when a new captain and crew take charge of the vessel. The good news is, they don’t have to learn seamanship from the ground, or in this case, the surface, up. If anyone can sail us back into the calm, they can.

As for Thanksgiving, I like what Dr. Leana Wen, a frequent TV commentator on COVID, said this week -- words to the effect of, “If you really want to celebrate Thanksgiving with your family and friends in person, do it next July, when we should all be in an entirely different place.” If she’s right, and 2021 is the year we observe TWO Thanksgivings, after what we will have been through, we may just be in the mood.

Elections and Soul-Saving

Many Democrats believed that the November 3 election could be the one that saved America’s soul, but it fell just a little short. It’s true that, barring some very unlikely event, Joe Biden and Kamala Harris will take office as President and Vice President on January 20. But the soul may be only half-saved, as the two runoffs for US Senate seats in Georgia at the beginning of January seem to be necessary to seal the Democratic deal. It’s a long shot: the Democrats would have to win both seats to hold the absolute thinnest majority. Even then, the Senate would basically be split down the middle.

Should the Democrats not win both, is it the end of the world? In practical terms, the instances in which all Republicans vote one way and all Democrats the other are relatively rare – or  at least, used to be. One or two Republicans typically peel off, and there is no guarantee that all Democrats will vote the party line all the time.

Should Mitch McConnell retain the title of Majority Leader, is that the end of the Biden administration’s chances to get its program through? Mr. McConnell’s big thing has been putting conservative judges on federal courts, a goal which he has pretty much achieved. Also, Joe Biden was once a Senate colleague of McConnell’s – and I have heard more than one observer say that McConnell was one of the more reasonable members of the Senate once, though we may have to go back quite a ways for that.

President Trump may think of himself as a great negotiator and dealmaker, but is he? It seems to me that he either gets his way or threatens to pull the plug. I think of negotiating as a technique used by both sides in a dispute to get the best deal for themselves in a situation that ends in a compromise. Mr. Biden seems more suited to that process.

For Democrats, the election may have solved one problem with the expected removal of Donald Trump from office, but little else has changed. Very close to half the electorate voted for him, and those people are still out there and resistant to being dissed and flown over. Maybe that split down the middle will teach both sides the art of the deal. The other way is not an option now.

Surgical Strike

Let me start by saying how thrilled I am about Joe Biden becoming President-elect. For me, it signals the United States rejoining the world, and the end of my having to be ashamed of the leader representing us. There are so many global challenges that we can’t deal with strictly by ourselves, and it will be nice for our allies to know they have a friend in us, the US, again.

But let’s be clear about something else: there has been no “blue wave.” The Democrats did not flip the Senate, and they lost seats in the House. The Presidential election was close enough to shorten a lot of fingernails.

What has happened is like finely targeted surgery. President Trump has been an abnormal cell in an ailing Republican Party that grew large enough to take it over. Removing it has required a mighty effort, and recovering from the procedure will take time. But I dare say there are more than a few Republicans who are just as relieved as the Democrats about the apparent outcome of the election, though they may not show it.

While many Americans wanted to try an outsider as President, I’m just as happy we will have an insider like Biden again, who knows how the system works, as does Senator Kamala Harris, now the first female Vice President-elect. Joe Biden has had solid relationships for decades with those on the other side of the aisle.

Indeed, you’d think the Republicans would feel better about having Joe Biden to deal with. Instead of viewing him as a Trojan horse who will allow the more left-leaning members of his party to run things, maybe Mr. Biden’s moderate views and experience in government will actually make him a buffer against that element. And the right-wing extremists and conspiracy theorists at least will receive no further nourishment, perceived or otherwise, from the White House.

I don’t mind the idea that some depth might be coming back to the state again, starting with a real coronavirus task force, a structure for dealing with future epidemics, and perhaps a rehabilitated CDC. Reviving the State Department would allow us to start clawing back our standing in the world. There will be a new Cabinet with secretaries who actually care about the departments they’re in charge of.

We still have some rapids to paddle through, but we will move into calmer waters, when something resembling normalcy returns. Things may actually get just a little boring. Sounds pretty good to me!

 

We Go to the Scorecards

Those of you who have watched championship boxing on TV will recognize that expression, which is what they say when, after a fierce battle in which both fighters land devastating blows on each other, neither goes down. With no knockout, the determination of a winner is made by a panel of three judges, whose individual scores are combined to determine the winner. When the fight is especially tough to score, that process can take a long time. And usually, the result is unsatisfying to a big portion of the fans.

Joe Biden was never the strongest of candidates. His nomination came not on the strength of primary debate performances but largely through the backing of a single influential Black congressman. His speeches came from the heart but lacked the engagement value of those of President Trump, though the latter’s often never made much sense. Biden’s main attraction as a candidate has been that he is not Donald Trump, and though it may be insensitive of me to say this, one of Biden’s biggest allies – whose help he certainly did not seek – has been the coronavirus. COVID was the supreme test of leadership, which Mr. Trump appears to have failed.

Most analogies fail too. My comparison of this election to a boxing match fails, of course, because we voters are the judges who have made our decisions. If there has been any suspense, it’s a little false, caused by our screwball method of arriving at a result.

The biggest losers are neither of the candidates but the pollsters. This is the same industry that forecast a knockout for Hillary Clinton in 2016. Polling is largely misunderstood and certainly misused. A poll is a snapshot, It’s about forecasting, and forecasting is the attempt to apply science to speculation. We can eliminate polling, but I think we will always have speculation, our constant human need to give ourselves a feeling of control over the future.

As many observers have noted, it’s a great thing that so many of us turned out for this event, mailing or dropping off our ballots or standing in those long lines. Would that there would always be such involvement  in the political process here, as there is in many other countries around the world.

But the same divisions in our United States remain: the racial ones, the economic ones, the social ones, and the philosophical ones. An election by itself doesn’t instantly heal those divides - certainly not this one.

Then What?

 

Prediction is a popular sport right now – not just who will win the election, but what happens afterward. It can take the form of speculation, hopeful anticipation, or worry. Here’s what I’m wondering about.

What happens if there’s a win for Joe Biden? Will there be a giant celebration, virtual or otherwise? Will the stock market go up a couple thousand points when the result is clear? How dejected – or angry – might Trump supporters be, and what will they do about it?

Many think Mr. Trump will use any trick in the book to cling to power, even taking his case to the newly filled Supreme Court. If the result of the election is clear, though, I don’t believe he will do that, choosing instead to focus on his own personal situation, seeking ways to avoid prosecution. But it is likely he will not be a gracious loser, and that the transition to a new administration will not be a smooth one. It probably won’t be like a relay race, where the baton is easily passed from one runner to another. The Biden administration may have to start from a dead stop, picking up the baton from the ground

Will it feel like a new dawn in America? All I can say is, we are heading into the dead of winter now, when dawns come slowly. My biggest concern is the enormous pressure that would be on Biden and Harris to chart a new course when there is so much from the previous four years that will have to be reversed. I have already said that there should be a Department of Undo in the cabinet.

Patience does not appear to be an American virtue right now, and if change doesn’t come quickly enough, and water is not walked upon, will the early Biden administration turn into a huge disappointment, especially if COVID has an extended stay?

What if Mr. Trump wins? First, will those on the left react violently? I doubt it. Many might focus on migrating to another country, where things are more stable and predictable. The incumbent likes to keep everyone guessing, and maybe guessing will be too much work for some of us.

COVID will eventually end, just as the Spanish Flu did, and as would be true whoever wins, we will recover – but how soon, and to what? Will the rest of our ‘20s roar, like the last time? I think our major challenge going forward will be keeping our expectations realistic.