Then What?

 

Prediction is a popular sport right now – not just who will win the election, but what happens afterward. It can take the form of speculation, hopeful anticipation, or worry. Here’s what I’m wondering about.

What happens if there’s a win for Joe Biden? Will there be a giant celebration, virtual or otherwise? Will the stock market go up a couple thousand points when the result is clear? How dejected – or angry – might Trump supporters be, and what will they do about it?

Many think Mr. Trump will use any trick in the book to cling to power, even taking his case to the newly filled Supreme Court. If the result of the election is clear, though, I don’t believe he will do that, choosing instead to focus on his own personal situation, seeking ways to avoid prosecution. But it is likely he will not be a gracious loser, and that the transition to a new administration will not be a smooth one. It probably won’t be like a relay race, where the baton is easily passed from one runner to another. The Biden administration may have to start from a dead stop, picking up the baton from the ground

Will it feel like a new dawn in America? All I can say is, we are heading into the dead of winter now, when dawns come slowly. My biggest concern is the enormous pressure that would be on Biden and Harris to chart a new course when there is so much from the previous four years that will have to be reversed. I have already said that there should be a Department of Undo in the cabinet.

Patience does not appear to be an American virtue right now, and if change doesn’t come quickly enough, and water is not walked upon, will the early Biden administration turn into a huge disappointment, especially if COVID has an extended stay?

What if Mr. Trump wins? First, will those on the left react violently? I doubt it. Many might focus on migrating to another country, where things are more stable and predictable. The incumbent likes to keep everyone guessing, and maybe guessing will be too much work for some of us.

COVID will eventually end, just as the Spanish Flu did, and as would be true whoever wins, we will recover – but how soon, and to what? Will the rest of our ‘20s roar, like the last time? I think our major challenge going forward will be keeping our expectations realistic.