Testing, Testing...Is This Thing On?

If you’re having trouble getting your head around this coronavirus testing issue, you’re in a very large club. The way it has been explained, there are two basic types of tests. The first, the PCR, is diagnostic and tells you if you have the virus, though you may not feel sick. If the test is positive, you need to be quarantined, and those who have come into contact with you recently need quarantining too. The second is the serology test, basically a blood test that determines if your immune system produced antibodies and successfully fought off the virus in the past.

The first test is a snapshot: you either have the virus or you don’t. if it comes out negative, It only means you did not have the virus when you were tested, but you might catch it later. The other test sounds like better news: you defeated the virus with antibodies, and maybe you are now immune. If so, it is you who may lead us on the long road back to normal.

How might this work in practice? If you are indeed immune, theoretically you could get a certificate that says you’re clean and return to work. If you never had the virus, you may not be able to return until you test negative via the PCR first. Even then, you might have to take repeat tests periodically to check your status.

The tests have been hard to get. There are a number of versions with varying degrees of accuracy. A lot of them are missing swabs, reactive chemical agents, or some other component needed to make them work. As with many shortages right now, it’s all about manufacturing and supply chain issues -  tough problems, but soluble. But we just don’t have the right President now.

Those in the know say we need to get a lot more testing done, with the tracing of contacts of virus carriers, to determine the penetration of the disease before we open up the economy. Others say we won’t really be safe until there’s a vaccine. But can we stay locked down for six months, or a year or more? In my own humble and unprofessional opinion, there is a tipping point coming, where we may have to open parts of the economy up, if only to save a little public sanity. That will come when improvement in our testing program intersects with the level of risk we are willing to tolerate. And whatever we open, we might have to close again.

Are we at this tipping point yet? No, and I fear that the governors of those states where the reins are being loosened may find the virus teaching them some hard lessons. The states hanging back will learn from the experience, or the mistakes, of those opening too soon. As for the protesters in the lockdown states, a few cops armed with cameras and books of tickets, each carrying a fine of a couple hundred bucks for violating local mask and separation orders, could easily thin those crowds out.

There will be plenty of time later to call out those who dropped the ball in responding to this crisis. In my view, It wasn’t all about negligence or denial; some of the mistakes were just unfortunate. Now, however, it’s time to pick up that ball and put our index fingers down - and then wash our hands, of course.