Odious Comparisons

 

President Biden declared that the possible invasion of Ukraine by Russia would be the largest since World War II. For his part, Vladimir Putin has denounced the West’s inflammatory rhetoric. In my view, he has something of a point. And even Ukraine’s president has called for a tone-down.

I can understand why Mr. Biden went where he did. He has spent most of his life in the 20^th century, and World War II is still a significant reference point. Plus, it’s the last war we actually won – as it happened, with the Russians’ help.

To be clear, I support the steps NATO is taking to prepare for any Russian aggression, but tough action doesn’t always require tough talk, which can often lock the talker into implied action. Why bring up World War II unless you’re ready for World War III?

Comparisons have their flaws. The worst are the unbalanced ones. Those who compare vaccine mandates to an example of life in Nazi Germany just make themselves sound a little silly, or even cause offense, as when speakers throw in references to the Holocaust or Anne Frank. I have often said that if you’re involved in a modern political argument, any reference to Hitler blows it up. Nobody will listen to the point you’re trying to make after that.

Comparisons, of course, are usually intended to provide an idea of the size or severity of something, and the media use them a lot. Like comparing the number of COVID deaths in a day to the number lost in 9/11. Oher than the number, the apples are clearly far away from the oranges.

By the way, when it comes to invasions, the US has been just as aggressive as some of our adversaries, sending thousands of troops into countries to depose leaders we don’t like or prop up those we do. We don’t generally do these things to make our own country larger, but we have tried to expand our sphere of influence and impose our political values on others on the grounds of our own national security. That’s not too different from what Putin is doing.

Mr. Putin is not a nice fellow, and I’m sure many of us in the West will be thrilled when he’s replaced. In the meantime, I hope there is a way of convincing him that if he backs away from military action in Ukraine, he will not lose face – in fact, it could enhance his stature on the world stage, and we might stop comparing him to dictators present and past. We all should live so long.

Pandemic Lenses

 

I recently re-watched a movie I hadn’t seen in a while called “In the Land of Women.” I won’t bore you with the plot, but in one sequence in the film, the male protagonist accompanies a teenage girl to a high school party at her friend’s house. The kids were packed into a small space like sardines; most couldn’t even sit down. SUPERSPREADER was the first thought that came to mind.

Now, that word just didn’t exist, at least in common use, when this movie was released in 2007, and when I first saw it, I wasn’t thinking of cootie transmission. Now, of course, it’s a thing. The movie isn’t bad, by the way, and I recommend it, even though most critics panned it.

This is a clear example, though, of how COVID has changed the way we look at things – and other people. I personally hate the blame game. If someone tests positive for the Omicron variant, they will probably blame it on their Aunt Minnie, who had the sniffles during a recent visit. Because we don’t have much of a testing and tracing system, folks do their own amateur tracing.

The fact is, vaccines do a great job of keeping many of us out of hospitals. But they don’t keep us from getting the disease. Omicron blew down those doors long ago, and in some places, one in three people has it. If you look at the New York Times color chart of US disease hot spots, there are no colors anymore. The entire map of the United States is black. So, unless you live in a 1960s bomb shelter, you could get  it from almost anyone.

It seems a little silly to me that they do constant news stories about which athlete or movie star or member of Congress has tested positive. There is no reason to gasp anymore when we hear these accounts.

Nobody “deserves” to get COVID. Certainly, small children don’t, and there is yet no vaccine for the youngest. As for adult anti-vaxxers, many will survive, but could face big medical bills, for those of you into karma.

Is there any good news here? According to Mike’s Unscientific Virology Institute, or MUVI, Omicron is going to run out of gas in the US, as we will reach herd immunity whether we recognize it or not. We will likely have the first true breather in two years. What happens after that? I don’t know – but I’ve never been very comfortable in crowds anyway. it will be nice, though,  when the sniffles are just the sniffles again.

 

Sizing COVID Up - and Down

The COVID numbers are staggering, with hundreds of thousands of new cases, especially Omicron. But let’s be clear about that little word “case.” You can have a case and not be sick at all.

The percentage of cases needing hospitalization is much lower than with previous COVID strains, but since Omicron is infecting so many people so fast, those who do require it are hitting the hospitals all at once, stressing the system out. Even with mild infections – or fear of them – many are staying home. Nobody has to order any lockdowns – we seem to be locking ourselves down this time just f

If we look at the graphs, we see that while steep rises in COVID cases are scary, they are usually followed by almost equally steep – meaning rapid – declines on the other side of the peak. This is happening in South Africa now, and we will likely peak here in the US in relatively short order. There are just more of us for the disease to go through here.

It will sound cruel to say this, but no matter the numbers, it’s my belief that COVID is one of nature’s ways of thinning the herd, and we are just another herd of mammals. But Mother Nature is often cruel, and there is much evidence of that way beyond this pestilence. “Cruel” is a judgment word, and She doesn’t care a jot about judgment. What’s important is how we respond to this challenge.

Rain is a natural occurrence, but just because it’s raining, we are not obligated to stand outside and get wet. We humans are smarter than that, despite many recent indications to the contrary. Could it be that Omicron seems less severe because vaccines and boosters actually work, keeping most infected people out of the emergency room?

The big question is, when will it all be over? The Spanish Flu ended, as most of these plagues do, but “over” is not a bright line. As some observers have said, there may be two “overs” – the first when COVID ends, or is at least declared officially under control, and the second when it is “over” for us socially and emotionally. We may foresee an explosion of travel, commerce, and mask-burning parties, but then again, we have developed a lot of new behaviors over these years, and it may take time to let some of them go.

Some of us will gingerly put our toes in the water before jumping back into the pool.  But the day will come when we can watch a full hour of cable news without hearing the C word. For that, I can’t wait!