Sizing COVID Up - and Down

The COVID numbers are staggering, with hundreds of thousands of new cases, especially Omicron. But let’s be clear about that little word “case.” You can have a case and not be sick at all.

The percentage of cases needing hospitalization is much lower than with previous COVID strains, but since Omicron is infecting so many people so fast, those who do require it are hitting the hospitals all at once, stressing the system out. Even with mild infections – or fear of them – many are staying home. Nobody has to order any lockdowns – we seem to be locking ourselves down this time just f

If we look at the graphs, we see that while steep rises in COVID cases are scary, they are usually followed by almost equally steep – meaning rapid – declines on the other side of the peak. This is happening in South Africa now, and we will likely peak here in the US in relatively short order. There are just more of us for the disease to go through here.

It will sound cruel to say this, but no matter the numbers, it’s my belief that COVID is one of nature’s ways of thinning the herd, and we are just another herd of mammals. But Mother Nature is often cruel, and there is much evidence of that way beyond this pestilence. “Cruel” is a judgment word, and She doesn’t care a jot about judgment. What’s important is how we respond to this challenge.

Rain is a natural occurrence, but just because it’s raining, we are not obligated to stand outside and get wet. We humans are smarter than that, despite many recent indications to the contrary. Could it be that Omicron seems less severe because vaccines and boosters actually work, keeping most infected people out of the emergency room?

The big question is, when will it all be over? The Spanish Flu ended, as most of these plagues do, but “over” is not a bright line. As some observers have said, there may be two “overs” – the first when COVID ends, or is at least declared officially under control, and the second when it is “over” for us socially and emotionally. We may foresee an explosion of travel, commerce, and mask-burning parties, but then again, we have developed a lot of new behaviors over these years, and it may take time to let some of them go.

Some of us will gingerly put our toes in the water before jumping back into the pool.  But the day will come when we can watch a full hour of cable news without hearing the C word. For that, I can’t wait!