The Trouble with Red Lines

How many times have we heard it spoken or implied: NATO won’t get involved in direct military action in the Ukraine war, but if Russia uses chemical or nuclear weapons, well then, that’s different, that’s a red line that Russia cannot cross. Russia doesn’t have to, of course, because it is trying to accomplish its ends without going there.

Let’s take the city of Mariupol, which has been destroyed, by merciless conventional bombardment, with many people killed. Let’s say that had been done by a nuclear weapon instead. The end result would be pretty much the same.

The basic problem with red lines is not the awful things that happen when they’re crossed. It’s what’s allowed to happen on this side of the line.

There are actually many lines drawn, as in, we’re not going to send our troops in, but we actively are sending weapons to help the Ukrainians out. So, we clearly have taken a side. NATO countries might say, it doesn’t involve us directly, because Ukraine isn’t a member of NATO. Well, yes it does, if you consider the tremendous economic impact it’s already having with the millions of refugees now flowing into NATO countries.

Of Vladimir Putin, President Biden said, this man cannot remain in power, forcing a lot of hair-splitting about whether that meant regime change. But Putin more or less IS the regime, in this particular case.

At some point there will be a cease fire and negotiations. Will Russia get to keep some of the territory it has conquered? And what about reparations? Will Russia pay for the physical damage, not even considering the pain and suffering caused to people? And the biggest question is, how do you negotiate with a war criminal, or multiple war criminals, down to the troops who have committed atrocities. Is genocide going on or not?

Look, I’m not beginning to suggest that any of these decisions or word definitions are easy. People with very good intentions are doing their best to avoid World War III. That is a line that nobody wants to cross. But how much is the world going to tolerate on this side of that line?