What Iffing

I’m struggling with an addiction. It’s a habit of thought, and I have a feeling I’m not alone -- running election scenarios. A distraction, when I could be directing my mind toward more useful pursuits. I’m a binge-speculator.

Not very long ago, impeaching this President was considered a waste of time, no matter the moral compulsions of some liberals, because the Senate would never vote to remove him, and the 2020 election was too close. But how things can turn on a dime these days! Maybe the new questionis, will Donald Trump finish his first term?

OK, here I go. Let’s just say that the President is impeached and removed. Then what happens? He might say, civil war. But more likely, we would have President Pence, at least until Inauguration Day 2021.

What night that be like? My own feeling is that if Mr. Pence just kept a chair warm in the Oval Office until then, he might do less damage than the current occupant. And what might happen to Mr. Trump after removal? Pence could pardon him of likely federal criminal charges, but he’d still have to face the music in the state of New York.

How might the stock market respond to all this? Would it tank, or shoot up a thousand points? Place your bets!

It seems Pence would stand little chance of being elected to a full term. In fact, he might not even be nominated, and let’s just say what I’ll call a more credible Republican gets the nod.

Then the Democrats pick Elizabeth Warren. You might have thought the Republican Party as a brand was doomed – but if voters had to choose between a credible Republican and an edgy liberal, what would happen? Not as easy a call, but perhaps more interesting.

Now, let’s just go wild and say that somehow BOTH Trump and Pence were removed from office (cut me a little slack here, just throwing some spaghetti against the wall, OK?). Then there would be President Nancy Pelosi. You may say, well, “they” hated Hillary, but the prospect of a President Pelosi might also be too far a bridge for some.

You see what an addicting game all this is! Beats fantasy football. In the end, though, he only sensible thing we can do is make sure our seat belts are tight, as we will be flying through turbulence for quite a while.

I don’t know about you, but I’m almost looking forward to the day when the news starts to get a little boring again, the way it used to be.

Pots and Kettles

I took some time to listen to the audio version of the whistleblower complaint about President Trump’s phone call with Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky, which is currently fueling the rapidly advancing impeachment inquiry into the alleged pressuring of Zelensky for help to advance Mr. Trump’s re-election prospects.

The complaint is no crazy cry in the wilderness. It is a carefully structured presentation of the information gathered by this individual, who said that while he didn’t hear the phone call himself, the accounts given by those who did were consistent. There was particular concern over the use of a separate server designed for highly classified material in an apparent effort to hide what the President was doing, and that it has been used on similar occasions.

To me, it seems crystal clear that President Trump was seeking foreign dirt on the man he believes will be his Democratic opponent in the upcoming election, former Vice President Joe Biden. Biden’s son Hunter was named to the board of a gas company in Ukraine whose founder was said to be a less-than-savory oligarch. Joe Biden, meanwhile,  actively sought the removal of a controversial Ukranian prosecutor. Defenders of the Bidens say they did nothing illegal there, though one wonders how the younger Biden got his job with limited knowledge of either Ukraine or the local gas business. A recent piece in The Atlantic on all this reminds us that it’s not new, or against the law, for those with a famous last name or a high connection to trade on that relationship. But there may be something of an optics problem now for the Bidens here.

That said, Joe Biden is not yet a presidential nominee. Will the party choose someone else with less baggage, or did President Trump simply make Biden a victim?

As for impeachment, what’s going on reminds me of the old days, when I had a refrigerator that didn’t automatically defrost. I had to heat up a pot of boiling water and put it in the freezer to thaw out the ice. I kept opening the freeze door to see if it was working, but that only slowed things down, and it took a long time for progress to be visible. After the first crack appeared, though, the ice melted quickly.

Angry Democrats would do well to be patient, taking their cue from that careful and methodical whistleblower in crafting an effective impeachment case. They may only have one chance before the election to get it right.

Hanging Five

It wasn’t exactly the Blue Wave that Democrats were hoping for in the midterms, but it was a lot better than nothing. While ground was lost in the Senate, there was enough of a surplus of Democratic victories on the House side to achieve way more than a slim majority. And with the chair positions on key committees switching to blue, the rubber is off the stamp for President Trump. Let’s not forget the almost 100 women among the winners.

A couple of other things to note: While voters couldn’t seem to resist electing Republicans in a few marquis races, the red paint was often a lot lighter on down-ballot choices for state legislature and on measures. Florida voters, for instance, elected a Republican governor but approved Amendment 4, which will allow felons to vote if they have served their time. And in several states, voters favored the expansion of Medicaid, another decidedly Democratic victory.

One of the TV pundits said something I really liked, which many of us may take for granted. This country has a tradition you don’t find in many others: the gracious private congratulation from the loser to the winner, and the often eloquent concession speech, which not only symbolizes the continuity of our system, but often gives the loser a bit of a star turn, as was the case with Beto O’Rourke, who clearly has a bright future ahead of him.

But we shouldn’t kid ourselves. The next two years aren’t going to be pretty. There’s a fair amount of blah-blah about this being an opportunity for deals to be made between Republicans and Democrats, but I have serious doubts. There are no signs of anyone coming to Jesus anytime soon.

 I’m just wondering if it isn’t time for a new political party now. We haven’t always had the same two major parties, and the names changed fairly often. We even had Whigs for a while. Is the Republican brand fatally damaged? I don’t know what we would call a new party full of honest, authentic, and reasonable people. Might it be Sanity, or is that too obvious? Gee, who’d want to vote against THAT?

 But hey, surfers, if you’re waiting for the really big waves, you better pick another day to go to the beach. Have faith, though, they are still coming.

When Bleep Happens

I can’t use the word I want, as this will likely be on the radio.

Anyway, when bleep does happen, the first thing we do is search for the reason, and then the blame game starts. How did Trump happen? It was the Russians. No, it was the media giving him too much free publicity. No, it was Hillary, who couldn’t connect with her “deplorables.” Or, how about the Democratic leadership, trying to tube Bernie? As for me, I blame the Electoral College. It was all of those things, maybe more.

Systemic failures usually have many causes – big things and little things that somehow sync up and expose a flaw that wasn’t thought of. With all the backup systems built into nuclear power plants, there are still Three Mile Islands, Chernobyls, and Fukushimas. The levee system designed to protect New Orleans failed in Katrina. The same media that saved our bacon in Watergate couldn’t keep us from getting into a questionable war in Iraq. The system of government our Founding Fathers created, with all its checks and balances, didn’t protect the country from Andrew Jackson, Warren G. Harding, or Donald J. Trump.

No system designed by humans is foolproof. There will always be something that gets by or around it. In some cases, there will be warnings, sometimes loud ones, that go unheeded. But in a way, we can be grateful for failures, because they expose the flaws in the equipment or institutions we depend on. We can address these flaws and build better defenses. The President’s shameful news conference performance in Helsinki hopefully will serve to wake up those of us who have been asleep, in time for November.

We have learned that we do in fact need a wall -- not the kind Mr. Trump talks about, but a cyber-wall to protect us from Russian and possibly other future intruders. Suppose the money budgeted for the next umpteen-zillion-dollar bomber were spent instead on hardening technology?

The ship of state may have a massive hole in it right now, and it has to limp into port for repairs. But I am optimistic that the ship will not sink. Our free press is far from perfect, but this time around, the much-maligned mainstream media have protected us from real catastrophe. Robert Mueller and his team, along with the intelligence community, are telling us exactly what’s been going on, and at least some justice will be done. This particular national nightmare will eventually be over.

The Velvet Rope

I never liked Roseanne Barr. I know she came to our attention as a working-class Everywoman, not the usual glamorous types we were used to seeing on small and big screens, but when I look at a screen, I don’t necessarily want to see Everywoman. That’s my problem, I guess. But even in the modern era, a little celebrity doesn’t give anyone the right to say just anything. I will amend that to say, they have the right, perhaps, but no immunity, as I have said many times, from consequences afterward.

What on Earth possessed Ms. Barr to fire off a racially offensive Tweet about former Obama aide Valerie Jarrett? It was mean and ugly, and while Ms. Barr later apologized and called it a joke, and even blamed Ambien use, there was nothing funny about it, which is required of a joke. ABC had absolutely no choice but to cancel her comeback.

There are some who think we are all basically racist. I go along with that, in the following sense: If all of a sudden, the world was a high school lunchroom, and we could sit with whomever we wanted, almost all of us would sit with members of our own tribe, our own color. If we are white, we might sit with an individual black or brown friend. But would we automatically think about looking for a seat at the black or brown table? We would probably not want to head for a table where we felt unwelcome. And they would reasonably feel the same way about our table.

There may be natural repulsions at work here, buried way more deeply than whatever we have absorbed from our culture. And I think allowances have to be made for them until they are naturally overcome, which takes time. Emancipation proclamations and civil rights laws do not by themselves make those feelings go away. Having said that, there are rules of the road, there are thoughts that we just don’t express, lines that we just don’t cross, in an enlightened society. On TV, I heard Sherrilyn Ifill talk about a “velvet rope,” like there used to be at movie theaters – we could easily cross it, but we just didn’t. Whatever license we think the Internet or President Trump himself may have issued to others who believe they have been freed to give voice to ugly sentiments, Barr jumped over that velvet rope. Or maybe crawled under it, is a better way to say it.

Racism has deep emotional and even sexual roots. We may have the fairest of minds, but our feelings don’t always catch up with them. I think that is eminently human.  But as individuals, the first step in the healing process is acknowledging those feelings in ourselves, making sure at the same time we are always keeping our minds open to new ways of looking at and hearing others. We are healed when our feelings catch up with our better angels, and we find out that we are all in this together.

Donald, Bar the Door?

 As expected, feared or cheered, President Trump has signed an executive order imposing a four-month moratorium on refugees coming into the United States, with Syrian refugees in particular banned indefinitely. General entry from seven Muslim-majority countries in the Middle East is banned for 90 days until an enhanced screening program is put in place. The goal is to keep radical Islamic terrorists from entering and gaining a foothold here to carry out attacks.

Let me be clear: I do not have a problem with the phrase “radical Islamic terrorism” or even enhancing the vetting process where needed. For Syrians in particular, however, the process was already daunting. Sadly, those in the final stages of this process now have the door slammed in their faces. And the discriminatory nature of the President’s order is right out there, as other Muslim nations in the Middle East, like Saudi Arabia and the UAE, are conveniently not on the “banned” list. Plus, an exception is to be made for Christian refugees.

I well understand that we can’t let in just everybody. But we never have. More often than not, we have discriminated. Many Jews fleeing the Nazis were not admitted during World War II, as an example. And it works in reverse: those with special skills considered necessary to our economy have always been welcomed. Adult male Irish immigrants who came during the Civil War were paid a nice bounty to join the Union Army almost as soon as they got off the boat. Lady Liberty may welcome the tired and poor, but is that what we really do?

As I have said many times, the U.S. and the West are almost complicit in the Syrian crisis. We shook our heads and said, “Ain’t that a shame?” when the Assad regime began murdering civilians using its own military. Even after President Obama’s infamous “red line” declaration when the regime was said to be using chemical weapons, we let Russia take charge – and take advantage of the situation to expand its influence. As wistful as many of us have been over the end of the Obama administration, our non-involvement in Syria remains a policy failure of cataclysmic proportions. The very existence of ISIS is a symptom.

Many of those who stand in crowds shouting “USA” and call for the building of walls conveniently forget that their American citizenship is a total accident of nature. Most of us just happened to be born here. We didn’t have to flee anything. Our ancestors were the ones who did the hard work. Not that living here is a picnic for everyone, but if we were born here, we all got free passes that we didn’t earn, and the oceans on either side of us have provided a convenient bubble for non-involvement in the rest of the world’s troubles.

What it boils down to, though, is that we each have to decide as Americans if President Trump is speaking for us with this executive order. He isn’t for me.

When Fail-Safe Fails

So how DID we get here, and where are we going now?

It’s almost impossible to absorb, in this age of instant communication and information abundance, that a confluence of events could have produced one of the most unpopular US presidents in 200 years. To me, it’s almost like what happens in a meltdown at a nuclear power plant. These facilities are fitted with layers of redundant fail-safe technologies to prevent such things from happening. But then, a collection of circumstances comes along which causes all of them to fail. We might call it an accident. But is it really? When we go back and review those circumstances, we find the culprit, or culprits.

The big one, in my view, is the whole system of elections. In the case of a presidential race, the process takes two years, and involves raising, and spending, billions of dollars. Because we allow every state to choose party nominees in their own ways, the rules are almost impossible to comprehend. Some have primaries, some have caucuses. In some the primaries are so-called beauty contests that don’t count, in others they do. In some, candidates have to win by congressional district. The process of even registering to vote varies by state. At the end of the process, after the national vote on the real Election Day, there is the Electoral College, which ensures that your vote and mine do not really count equally after all. Why do we tolerate this mess? A lot of it has to do with tradition. We’ve done it this way because it seems like we always have. Is that a good enough reason not to change it? Our Founding Fathers accepted the need for change. Even our sacred Constitution can be amended.

Of course, that’s not the whole story of what produced Donald Trump. What was the media’s role? It’s clear he got a disproportionate amount of attention. But did we have to have so many debates? And what about us media consumers? Was it just more reality TV for us, a different kind of American Idol? Come on, I saw some of you eating popcorn.

How did Hillary Clinton lose? Was it all down to FBI director James Comey? Was it the Russians? I wasn’t necessarily a Bernie Sanders fan, but the Democratic Party leadership did what it could to sabotage his campaign in favor of Hillary. The party got what it deserved.

Was it the elites versus the little guys? The 1 percent versus the 99? Immigrants versus native-born? Christians against Muslims? The coastals versus the flyovers? Or are many American voters just plain stupid? I submit that they are not. Most of us were blessed with a relatively equal number of brain cells. In too many cases, though, they go unused out of fear of letting in too much disruptive information. We have the technology to communicate, but we have clearly lost the art of it. And unless we find it again, there will be another Civil War, this time, a social one.

As to protests, I am all for them, but amassing a crowd, listening to speeches and wearing pink hats are only the beginning steps. There are a lot of things that need fixing now, and we have to save some energy for the long term, because many of the repairs are going to require courage, stamina, savvy – and open minds.

SEX! Now That I Have Your Attention...

Elections can be boring. We’ve been listening to and reading the same blah-blah for more than two years. Wake me when they stop talking about trade policy. But ah, throw sex into the mix, and we sit bolt upright, straining to hear the next shoe dropping.

There’s no doubt that Mr. Trump is a vile human being on many levels, but his attitude toward women will be what sinks his candidacy for President. We’ve learned a little bit about the electoral system that elevated him. What about the cultural environment that helped shape him? This is an effort to explain, not excuse.

I am about the same age as he, so grew up in a time when gender roles were much more rigid. What defined masculinity in the media, in terms of relations with women, especially for very young men with little experience? There were two influences that seemed to stand out in my era: James Bond and Playboy. Sean Connery was a classic modern male in the movies, and Playboy gave us directions for how to do it, implying that the prize for doing so was a centerfold companion. If you were a man with money and a little celebrity status, you’d be entitled to these prizes if you just followed the rules. This is a gross oversimplification, of course, and gives you more information about me (TMI), perhaps, than it does about Mr. Trump.

The bottom line, though, is that men were offered quick and easy directions for “scoring” with women. And in Mr. Trump’s case, it seemed they worked much of the time, which only likely increased his sense of entitlement, power, and control. And the women, most of whom had no power, had to go along, fearing the consequences if they didn’t.

But there are no shortcuts to meaningful relationships. Following the same pattern and being rewarded for it is like a child learning to play Chopsticks on the piano and being disproportionately praised. He loves the praise so much, he plays the same tune over and over, maybe adding a few variations, but it’s still Chopsticks, and the control is comforting to him and adds to his confidence. And he misses out on all the other music the piano could produce – but for that, he would have to learn new pieces, which is challenging, and takes time, patience, and most of all, humility.

Emancipation takes time. Gloria Steinem is the Rosa Parks of the women’s movement, and taught us a lot, but absorbing it is a slow process. The media culture, even in Anno Domini 2016, doesn’t help, with misogyny, objectification, and body-shaming remaining prominent features. The constant stream of revelations about Mr. Trump’s escapades make us feel like taking three showers a day – but he is just one of the reasons why this discussion is needed so sorely.

Thank You, Mr. Trump

Donald Trump is right. His comments about Mexican “rapists” and impregnable border fences, outrageous though they may be, have forced his fellow Republicans, and the rest of us, to talk about immigration. It’s truly the “elephant in the room” on many levels.

It’s very easy for us to have a theoretical discussion about immigration. True, we have problems: millions of people here illegally or semi-legally, who many of the rest of us think are draining our resources. But what would we do if our country were in Europe right now instead of being conveniently isolated by two oceans? What would we do if all these desperate people were washing up on our shores – if their boats even made it that far? Would they be a drain on our resources? Very likely – but some European countries, like Greece, don’t have any resources left to drain. We do have an easy life here!

Let’s roll back the tape a little bit. A few Arab Spring demonstrators several years ago in Syria inexplicably prompted their government to turn a mechanized army on its own people, killing hundreds of thousands. Nothing we can do about it, we said, not our problem, and the other Western powers largely agreed. Let them fight it out for themselves, we said. The country descended into total chaos, and now there is ISIS. Millions have been displaced, and not just from Syria. Did neglect come back to bite us? We haven’t really been bitten yet in this situation, just the Europeans. Some countries are still trying to say, not our problem. But the desperate thousands arrive anyway – their problem whether they like it or not.

There are no easy solutions to our own immigration issues, parochial as they may seem by comparison. Certainly, we have to come up with a fair system that allows for people living here and contributing to our economy as well as for those seeking asylum or those just seeking a better life. But as a friend of mine pointed out recently, most of our ancestors were immigrants – not always nice ones – who displaced the native population. We forced others to “migrate” here as personal property. You can keep rolling back the tape, and you’ll find that the hard distinctions between good guys and bad guys just get blurrier and blurrier.

But at some point we are going to have to set aside demagogic talk about anchor babies and fences and understand that we are all in this boat --- on this planet – together, and the hard distinctions between “our problems” and “their problems” are also a lot blurrier than they used to be.

He's Not Funny, Folks

A comedian friend of mine used to say when evaluating a colleague, “I know funny, and he isn’t.” Is anyone really enjoying Donald Trump? If I hear one more person say, “Isn’t it great how he’s shaking things up?”… No, I’d better not say what I might do.

Let’s see, he’s given us Mexican rapists crossing the border, John McCain not being a war hero, and the cell phone number of a fellow Republican he disagrees with. If Mr. Rogers were here, he’d be channeling Rick Perry: “Can you say, ‘Commander-in-Chief’?”

That’s not just a snarky comment. Donald Trump is showing us what kind of battles he picks – and one of the biggest jobs a U.S. president has is picking battles. If the battles Trump has been picking represent what he thinks will win him the presidency, what kind will he pick if he were actually elected? (A concept which is, thankfully, very remote).

In the case of McCain, one could actually make a semantic argument over the use of the word “hero,” though anyone who spends years as a POW has to be given some credit for simply surviving. And, of course, Trump never had to serve one minute in the armed forces, so he doesn’t have the standing to even raise that issue.

This is about judgment. I actually wouldn’t have minded if McCain had become president himself – but he picked Sarah Palin as his running mate, or at least let others pick her for him. What did that say about his judgment? I didn’t think anyone could possibly make me miss Sarah Palin, but Mr. Trump has done it. The sexist pig in me says she is much nicer to look at.

In a perfect media world (that I controlled) I would cease on principle to give Donald Trump one more second of airtime, drop of ink, or digital keystroke. Don’t we have better things to do? Can’t somebody just make him go away?

As for Trump “shaking things up” in the GOP, is the party, or the nation, that bored? I live in California, but I don’t sit around longing for the next earthquake. They usually just cause damage. And Trump is just shaking the surface anyway. The Republican Party needs to be shaken to its foundation if it expects to survive this Trump, or future Trumps – or survive, period.

Trump Isn't Funny

A few years ago, there was a popular book with a title something like "1,001 Uses for Duct Tape." The 1,002nd could easily be muzzling Donald Trump.

Perhaps some of us have enjoyed laughing at Trump's buffoonery over the past few weeks. At least buffoons are sort of like clowns -- they're funny. Trump just isn't.

We've all contributed to this unfortunate phenomenon in some way. I fault prominent Republicans for failing to denounce Trump's behavior in the strongest possible terms. I fault the media for sticking a microphone in front of this guy. I even fault the President for not releasing his "long form" birth certificate until this week. Now perhaps Republicans enjoyed seeing Trump cause Obama so much grief. Some have argued that Obama himself enjoyed dragging this out because it kept the President from having to deal with criticism over more substantive issues, while Trump blackened the GOP's eye.

But we're to blame, too. We consumed the coverage of this unfortunate affair. When you consider what's going on in the Middle East right now, especially Syria, how did this Trump business make it to the top of the news charts?

If I were a sponsor of Trump's TV show, I'd seriously reconsider my association with him. How he can have any credibility as the host of the show from this point forward is beyond me, but then again, it's not a sphere where credibility is required.

The best treatment for Mr. Trump right now is obscurity. It would be great if we could all make sure he gets it.