Negative Campaign Ads Work...Don't They?

For decades, this has been the conventional wisdom, and there’s no question they make an impression. But do they really “work” – meaning change minds, or push undecided voters to a commitment?

I think hit pieces are sort of like antibiotics. They’re effective for a while, and then they start to lose their potency. The bacteria simply mutate around them – get too “smart” for them, if you prefer.

Now I’m not exactly an optimist when it comes to this subject. I won’t say that the majority of the electorate are stupid – they’re mostly uninformed, and usually only get informed if they have to. Even so, thanks to the Internet and other channels, the percentage of really uninformed people, in my estimation, is dropping. As this percentage goes down, the effectiveness of negative ads drops as well. Even stupid people, in this information age, can recognize a hit piece for what it is.

I have reached the point where I just don’t care about certain things (though they may be important to you – sorry if you’re one of those folks). I don’t care whether Mitt Romney made his dog ride on the top of the car or whether Mormonism is a cult. I don’t care whether Obama’s preacher was a racist or whether he had radical friends. When it comes to creating – or losing – jobs, neither Romney nor Obama really had all that much to do with it. I’d be happy to see a line drawn under all this stuff.

So what’s going to “work,” message-wise? First, a focus on the future, not the past. And second, messages that clearly lay out the country’s problems and offer realistic – but creative – means of solving them. Herman Cain flew high for a while because he had a plan – it may have been crazy, but at least it was a plan, and voters have a thirst for that sort of thing.

With the billions that will be spend on campaign ads, the news media don’t need to compound the problem by dealing with the back-and-forth and playing them all over again for free. Fact-check, OK, but don’t give the “horse race” more time than it’s worth. The Kentucky Derby only took a couple of minutes.

As an experienced radio operator, I am very good by now at picking out the signals in the middle of the static. The purveyors of negativity will find that the electorate is getting better at it, too.