Surf's Up

We’ve just had the Mavericks surf competition here in Northern California -- the first time in two years we’ve had waves sufficient to challenge the world-class competitors who come here when the conditions are right.  Some years, the waves are better than at others, but winning the competition is all about how well the surfers catch them. It’s a reminder to me of how life’s cycles work.

There’s a lot of optimism in the air right now, it seems. The troops are coming home, and we could very well be looking at a period of time when we’re not involved in a war. Housing starts are up, and home sales should have their best season in years with some of the lowest interest rates in history – as long as buyers qualify. The jobless rate is dropping; stocks are going up and 401ks are getting fatter. It seems almost inevitable that a down cycle reverses by itself, but we have our part in that process.

Some say that climate change is simply a natural cycle, but most scientists agree that we have our part to play there as well. In his inauguration speech, President Obama noted that the transition to sustainable energy sources would be a long and difficult path. But this transition is already underway, and he said that instead of trying to resist it, the United States has to lead it. He said that while freedom was a gift from God, we have to secure it here on Earth. The Declaration of Independence, to which he referred continually in his address, says that we have a right to life and liberty – but happiness is something we have to pursue.

A young woman I know is taking advantage of a personal “up” cycle. She is recovering from a long bout with a chronic illness, and thanks to the exploding housing market, she’ll be selling her small San Francisco Bay Area home at a substantial profit soon and moving to a Southern state where home prices – and taxes – are much lower. After visiting this new state and falling in love with a particular area, she knows this is the right move for her. I envy her her certainty about it. She’s pursuing her happiness, and if she finds things less than perfect when she arrives in her new home, she’s one who won’t rest until she makes up the difference.

Evolution is an irresistible process, and so, it seems, are the cycles of life. We’re definitely in an upswing, a moment of economic and political opportunity, as the President pointed out. Is this a window to end the paralyzing gridlock in Washington? The wave’s breaking, and let’s hope and pray that he and the Congress, and by extension, we the people (to refer to the Declaration again) have the sense to catch it.

No Change of Horses

In 1864, when President Abraham Lincoln was at his most unpopular and running for re-election, his campaign slogan was “Don’t change horses in the middle of the stream.” Whether you think invoking Lincoln here is appropriate or not, it appears the country has decided to hang on to Mr. Obama for another four years.

Even for Obama-haters, there are certain advantages to this situation. There’s no reasonable cause anymore for congressional Republicans to refuse to deal with him. For the next four, he’s what they’ve got. For Mr. Obama, there’s no reason for political timidity. He doesn’t have to worry about re-election. It opens the door to compromise – a relatively short time before the mid-term election for Congress – where the two parties could actually get something accomplished. President Obama did not win anything resembling a mandate; the Republicans didn’t substantially improve their position in Congress. It’s a wash, so there’s nothing to crow about, and crowing is a waste of time, anyway.

I have some requests for things both sides can work on going forward – after they pull us back from the “fiscal cliff.”

TAX REFORM. Mitt Romney had the germ of a great idea. The issue isn’t just about taxing the rich, which would only be a Band-Aid on top of old Band-Aids. Simplify the tax code! In the end, it will benefit everyone, taking a huge monkey off the backs of individuals and businesses alike. This is one of the keys to dealing with the deficit.

I heard a horror story on NPR this morning about something called the Alternative Minimum Tax, a regulation adopted in the 1980s to make sure wealthy people were paying their fair share of taxes. Apparently, the story said, this regulation was never indexed to inflation, and Congress has to “patch” it each year. If they fail to do so, the AMT could apply to incomes as low as $75,000 – which could mean an instant tax hike as much as 20 percent for the average middle-class family. This is one of the poster children for why the tax system needs to be overhauled – and soon.

IMMIGRATON. Solve this one once and for all. Do the best job you can sealing the borders. Then, come up with a national system that both recognizes realities and is fair to the people who’ve been playing by the rules. Mr. Obama, you promised to deal with this in your first term. You have another opportunity to make good on your promise.

HEALTH CARE. Just because Obamacare is the law, it doesn’t mean Congress and the President have to stop working on this issue. How about tort reform, for one thing? And maybe some real controls on insurance charges?

OTHER STUFF. If there’s time, why not work on getting rid of the Senate filibuster, abolishing the Electoral College, and take a whack at campaign finance reform so we don’t have to endure another election like this one?

These are all very difficult, but they can be solved if elected officials make up their minds to work together to solve them instead of posturing. The President – and the Congress -- have a real opportunity to leave a legacy.

Mr. President, if I may address you directly, enough of the electorate has decided that you are the more effective leader than Mitt Romney. So LEAD already! Get out IN FRONT of issues instead of letting them beat down your door. Put plans on the table before your opponents do. And hold more news conferences -- keep us updated; bring us along with you as you deal with these problems. We just told you we're on your side -- as long as it's the side of getting things done.

The Undecided Idiot

I am a big fan of Bill Maher, but I have to take issue with him on his opinion of undecided voters in this election.

Maher basically characterized the undecideds on a recent show as uninformed idiots. While I’m sure there are quite a few who fit that description, you don’t make it on NPR unless you have a brain cell or two, and I’ve heard their reporters talked to plenty of folks who are still on the fence.

Actually, it’s my belief that there is no such thing as a fence. I can’t stand fences, and I think most thinking human beings hate them. I make up my right away about most things. The only problem is, if you talk to me an hour later, I will likely have made a new decision the other way. What makes me change? Usually, it’s new information.

So here comes the first Presidential debate, which many pundits say may be the ultimate showdown between Mitt Romney and Barack Obama. But what do debates accomplish? Detractors will say that they only tell us who’s the better debater. But that is no small skill, as an effective President has to be able to persuade, and persuasion is part of leadership. It’s another piece of information.

Some of us are waiting to see a train wreck: a gaffe, a stumble, an insensitive remark, or the betrayal of something the individual would prefer to hide. The fact is, both President Obama and Mitt Romney have been caught at these things already. Most recently, Romney has had to deal with the “47 percent” remark, but remember when Obama told the Russian he’d be more flexible after the election?

Information is one thing; of course, it’s all about what we do with it. Those who see virtue in having made up their minds for good will look for information in the debate that confirms their decision; otherwise, they’ll have to think of themselves as wishy-washy. Others may receive enough information to change their minds.

Yes, I’ve made up my mind about the man I think would make a better President, but I’m not ready to tell you, and I probably won’t be ready after Wednesday. There’s still time for new information – those final pieces of the puzzle -- to come along, and then I’ll do what I usually do, vote with my gut, which, all things being equal, has a pretty good track record at doing the right thing in these situations.