Sea Changes

Let me see…we were about to launch an attack on Syria, but now we’re talking to the Russians about their plan to secure and destroy Syria’s stockpile of chemical weapons. And now the new president of Iran, Hassan Rouhani, has ended the denial of the Holocaust and wants to negotiate over that country’s plans to become a nuclear power. What’s going on here? What triggered this? It’s not spring. But could it be an equinoctial thing?

Probably nothing so semi-metaphysical. I think it’s more about enlightened self-interest. The Russians have substantial military and economic interest in what happens in Syria. Putin & Co. would probably like to see the Assad regime stay in power for as long as possible. In Iran, maybe reality is setting in. CNN’s Christiane Amanpour, who interviewed Rouhani, says he wouldn’t be making nice unless he had authorization to do so from the religious leaders of his country, and why would they provide it? Could it be that economic sanctions are actually hurting, and the old men who run that country realize that the general population, which is much younger and less hateful of America, might be upset with them if they don’t change their attitudes? Is it a case of  “the devil knowing his time is short”?

Some Americans may have trouble trusting either the Russians or the Iranians, after our past history with their respective governments. But there are few more solid foundations for trust than an opposing party doing something that’s good, simply because circumstances are leaving no other choice.

So the next question is, if our worst enemies are finally doing something we want them to do because they have to do it, can the same principles work with forcing Congress to work through differences on Obamacare and the debt ceiling?

I think locking members of Congress in the Capitol and locking all the bathrooms there until they get this done would work just fine. There are few more powerful incentives than having to go because you have to go.

Surf's Up

We’ve just had the Mavericks surf competition here in Northern California -- the first time in two years we’ve had waves sufficient to challenge the world-class competitors who come here when the conditions are right.  Some years, the waves are better than at others, but winning the competition is all about how well the surfers catch them. It’s a reminder to me of how life’s cycles work.

There’s a lot of optimism in the air right now, it seems. The troops are coming home, and we could very well be looking at a period of time when we’re not involved in a war. Housing starts are up, and home sales should have their best season in years with some of the lowest interest rates in history – as long as buyers qualify. The jobless rate is dropping; stocks are going up and 401ks are getting fatter. It seems almost inevitable that a down cycle reverses by itself, but we have our part in that process.

Some say that climate change is simply a natural cycle, but most scientists agree that we have our part to play there as well. In his inauguration speech, President Obama noted that the transition to sustainable energy sources would be a long and difficult path. But this transition is already underway, and he said that instead of trying to resist it, the United States has to lead it. He said that while freedom was a gift from God, we have to secure it here on Earth. The Declaration of Independence, to which he referred continually in his address, says that we have a right to life and liberty – but happiness is something we have to pursue.

A young woman I know is taking advantage of a personal “up” cycle. She is recovering from a long bout with a chronic illness, and thanks to the exploding housing market, she’ll be selling her small San Francisco Bay Area home at a substantial profit soon and moving to a Southern state where home prices – and taxes – are much lower. After visiting this new state and falling in love with a particular area, she knows this is the right move for her. I envy her her certainty about it. She’s pursuing her happiness, and if she finds things less than perfect when she arrives in her new home, she’s one who won’t rest until she makes up the difference.

Evolution is an irresistible process, and so, it seems, are the cycles of life. We’re definitely in an upswing, a moment of economic and political opportunity, as the President pointed out. Is this a window to end the paralyzing gridlock in Washington? The wave’s breaking, and let’s hope and pray that he and the Congress, and by extension, we the people (to refer to the Declaration again) have the sense to catch it.

Instant Advice

Among my character flaws is that I love to give advice! This is especially pleasurable when (1) I have no demonstrated experience in the subject I’m advising about; (2) I can’t do what I’m advising you to do; and (3), and most important: you didn’t ask for it.

Tip No. 1: Buy stocks now, especially in brand names you recognize and that are in a growing industry or involve a popular or needed product. Just for the first few days of the Thanksgiving weekend holiday shopping period, one report says spending is already up 13 percent over last year. The pent-up money is coming out from all those mattresses.

Congress and the President WILL avoid the fiscal cliff! The members of Congress may be crazy, but they’re not stupid. They know that their constituents will be…um…less than hospitable if they return home without having done anything. The tar will already be heated up and the feathers waiting for them. The good news is, when the fiscal cliff is averted, the United States will get its credit rating back, and the stock market will go through the roof, which I define as 300-plus points in one day and more after that.

Tip No. 2: Buy a home or condo someplace warm now, not subject to overly violent weather. Think of all those Baby Boomers retiring. They like heat. And if they live in the Northeast, a lot of them are gonna want outta there after Sandy. I would suggest California’s Coachella Valley, around Palm Springs, where there is underpriced property, virtually no snow ever, and a great international airport if you have to get away. And for most of the summer, it’s a dry heat.

(Side tip A, to real estate people: Tell these eager customers as little as you can about (1) taxes and (2) earthquakes.)

(Side tip B: If you know any Mayans, tell them to pipe down already, at least for four weeks or so.)

As they say in the fine print, there is no guarantee of success for actually following this advice, and this blog assumes no responsibility, yadda, yadda, yadda....you know the drill.


Well, that’s all I have for now. If you need any more advice, don’t ask me. It’s no fun if it’s actually solicited.

Casting Call

Some of my Facebook friends and I are currently engaged in a game to see who can successfully cast the inevitable movie about this Petraeus/Broadwell/Kelly/Allen thing. So far, I’ve seen votes for William H. Macy to play Gen. Petraeus and Drew Barrymore for Ms. Broadwell. I might prefer Julianne Moore for Broadwell; having trouble with the Petraeus character.

To us, of course, it’s just a game, but I don’t think there are enough buckets in Hollywood right now to catch all the saliva this drama is generating. Is it a soap opera or a spy thriller? “Homeland,” “The West Wing,” or “Revenge”? Oliver Stone must have his running shoes on for this one already. The story has just about everything you could want for a film treatment.

But I still have doubts whether, at bottom, it isn’t just a four-star soap opera. I really hope that’s all it is. I’m not looking forward to those congressional let’s-get-to-the-bottom-of-this hearings, at which all the sordid details of this incident, if that’s what we can call it, are dredged up.

As I said in earlier posts, I think the Obama administration’s handling of the Benghazi attack in which our ambassador to Libya and others were killed would get a flunking grade in Crisis Communications 101. The election is now over, and so should be the game of political football. That said, the administration still owes the country, and the victims’ families, a full explanation of what happened in Benghazi. I’d rather see the administration lay it out than Congress drag it out, along with the other juicy stuff, titillating as that may be.

Does anyone really believe national security was in jeopardy because of Petraeus and Broadwell? National security really is at stake as we inch closer to the Fiscal Cliff. Fixing that would be a much better use of time in Washington.