Instant Advice

Among my character flaws is that I love to give advice! This is especially pleasurable when (1) I have no demonstrated experience in the subject I’m advising about; (2) I can’t do what I’m advising you to do; and (3), and most important: you didn’t ask for it.

Tip No. 1: Buy stocks now, especially in brand names you recognize and that are in a growing industry or involve a popular or needed product. Just for the first few days of the Thanksgiving weekend holiday shopping period, one report says spending is already up 13 percent over last year. The pent-up money is coming out from all those mattresses.

Congress and the President WILL avoid the fiscal cliff! The members of Congress may be crazy, but they’re not stupid. They know that their constituents will be…um…less than hospitable if they return home without having done anything. The tar will already be heated up and the feathers waiting for them. The good news is, when the fiscal cliff is averted, the United States will get its credit rating back, and the stock market will go through the roof, which I define as 300-plus points in one day and more after that.

Tip No. 2: Buy a home or condo someplace warm now, not subject to overly violent weather. Think of all those Baby Boomers retiring. They like heat. And if they live in the Northeast, a lot of them are gonna want outta there after Sandy. I would suggest California’s Coachella Valley, around Palm Springs, where there is underpriced property, virtually no snow ever, and a great international airport if you have to get away. And for most of the summer, it’s a dry heat.

(Side tip A, to real estate people: Tell these eager customers as little as you can about (1) taxes and (2) earthquakes.)

(Side tip B: If you know any Mayans, tell them to pipe down already, at least for four weeks or so.)

As they say in the fine print, there is no guarantee of success for actually following this advice, and this blog assumes no responsibility, yadda, yadda, yadda....you know the drill.


Well, that’s all I have for now. If you need any more advice, don’t ask me. It’s no fun if it’s actually solicited.

How About Black SATURDAY? (Reprise)

I’m not one to risk an arm, a leg, an eye or teeth – much less contracting frostbite – just to be the first through the big-box store door on Friday morning to score a flat-screen TV or tablet, but the whole concept of Black Friday still is offensive. This year, of course, some retailers aren’t even waiting till Friday, and we all know what that means for Thanksgiving, which should be one of those sacred holidays (and why they call them “holidays” is a mystery to me, but that’s another program).


The “black” part is supposed to be about retailers kicking off the season so they can be “in the black” at the end, but historically, putting “black” in front of a day of the week has always meant a financial panic or some other disaster. I guess the naming was deliberate, but I’m not sure it has the desired effect.

It’s all just a big game, though, as retailers have to show the huge numbers for Black Friday as an indicator of how the shopping season will go and the overall health of the economy. But I resent the idea that you have to have your will on file somewhere and your life insurance in force before you go shopping.

At the very least, can’t we compromise a little bit and push it all back to Saturday, if only as a Thanksgiving digestion aid? And please, can we eventually go back to celebrating seasons some time during the actual seasons?

I’m waiting for a kid to show up at the front door next Halloween dressed as Santa – trust me, it’s coming.

Can You Say, "Overkill"?

If Fred Rogers were alive today – and spoke fluent Hebrew – would he be saying this to the Israeli government?

I don’t begrudge Israel the right to defend itself, but you can’t tell me there isn’t a proportion problem involved in its response to the Hamas-fired rockets coming from Gaza. This is the most densely populated place on Earth, so it’s said, and Israel’s “surgical” air strikes to damage Hamas can’t help but kill civilians. The sheer number of them seems to have another purpose, what we in the U.S. call shock and awe. And if there isn’t enough awe inspired, Israel might launch a ground invasion.

Does Israel think that its military response is somehow going to liberate Gaza from Hamas domination? It’s more likely to have the opposite effect: uniting the Palestinians and drawing in support for them from other players in the region.

What has Israel offered to Gaza as an alternative to Hamas? During a discussion I heard on CNN this week, it was noted that while Gaza is firing rockets at Israel, there’s been no such aggression from the other Palestinian enclave, the West Bank. According to the commentators, this is because the West Bank actually has something resembling a middle class, for whom revolution isn’t top-of-mind.

Perhaps the Israeli government believes that Gazans deserve their misery for electing Hamas as their own leaders in the first place, so the place is left to fester. I once compared Gaza to the Warsaw Ghetto, which, of course, is seriously unfair. Even so, you would think that having the Warsaw Ghetto in its experience might make Israel a little more sensitive to what happens to millions of desperate people crammed into a small space.

At what point will Israel finally conclude that its message has been sent? We can only hope that point comes soon.

Two Minds

It may not be a surprise to some of you, but it was to me, how small-minded Mitt Romney is. For him to suggest that President Obama bought re-election by providing “gifts” to certain portions of the electorate is more than just poor sportsmanship. It’s offensive on multiple levels, and it’s exactly the message the GOP doesn’t want to be putting out right now. It’s no secret that the Obama campaign targeted women, minorities and young people to bring them to the polls. But it’s also no secret that Romney simply didn’t have the ground game to win. And Mr. Romney himself is apparently unable to grasp the fact that minority votes may very well have been bought with ideas, not gifts. Slip of the tongue? Poor choice of words? I think not.

There are small minds, but then there may be deceptive ones. I think most of us still haven’t sorted out this Benghazi business. Now we’re hearing sources say that General Petraeus, as head of the CIA, knew instantly that the U.S. ambassador was killed in a pre-planned al-Qaeda attack on Sept. 11, not by some angry mob. Whom did Petraeus tell? If U.N. Ambassador Susan Rice was given bad information about the Benghazi incident before she talked about it publicly, who gave her that information, and why? Who benefited – and what exactly was the benefit? Nothing seems to compute, so far.

If lipstick’s being put on a pig here, who’s the makeup artist? Perhaps the congressional hearings on all this will clear things up. It’s impossible to come to a conclusion about it, based on what’s out there right now, but there are two choices, neither of them good. Either this thing was handled incompetently -- or flat-out deceptively. Guess we just have to stay tuned.

Casting Call

Some of my Facebook friends and I are currently engaged in a game to see who can successfully cast the inevitable movie about this Petraeus/Broadwell/Kelly/Allen thing. So far, I’ve seen votes for William H. Macy to play Gen. Petraeus and Drew Barrymore for Ms. Broadwell. I might prefer Julianne Moore for Broadwell; having trouble with the Petraeus character.

To us, of course, it’s just a game, but I don’t think there are enough buckets in Hollywood right now to catch all the saliva this drama is generating. Is it a soap opera or a spy thriller? “Homeland,” “The West Wing,” or “Revenge”? Oliver Stone must have his running shoes on for this one already. The story has just about everything you could want for a film treatment.

But I still have doubts whether, at bottom, it isn’t just a four-star soap opera. I really hope that’s all it is. I’m not looking forward to those congressional let’s-get-to-the-bottom-of-this hearings, at which all the sordid details of this incident, if that’s what we can call it, are dredged up.

As I said in earlier posts, I think the Obama administration’s handling of the Benghazi attack in which our ambassador to Libya and others were killed would get a flunking grade in Crisis Communications 101. The election is now over, and so should be the game of political football. That said, the administration still owes the country, and the victims’ families, a full explanation of what happened in Benghazi. I’d rather see the administration lay it out than Congress drag it out, along with the other juicy stuff, titillating as that may be.

Does anyone really believe national security was in jeopardy because of Petraeus and Broadwell? National security really is at stake as we inch closer to the Fiscal Cliff. Fixing that would be a much better use of time in Washington.

Falling in Love

OK, so stop me if you haven’t heard any of these stories before: Powerful man in highly sensitive government post has an extramarital affair. A biographer falls in love with the subject of the work. A leak occurs; powerful man quits. These things don’t always happen in the same way or in the same order, but the elements are the same.

When he knew that his affair with Paula Broadwell was no longer a secret, Gen. David Petraeus, probably the most respected military leader of the last decade, quit his post at the CIA. The question for me is, how much of his business is our business?

I am a great admirer of Sen. Dianne Feinstein, but I don’t agree that this is necessarily Congress’ business. That said, I do recognize that these kinds of things can be potential security risks, simply by the nature of the commission of an act the individuals involved want to hide. I’ve always believed that what Bill Clinton did with Monica Lewinsky fell into this category; this is very much the same. The FBI has investigated the Petraeus affair, however, and has found no breach of security, at least so far, which would be the trigger for the agency to inform Congress. I think times have changed a little since J. Edgar days!

It’s true that many of the facts haven’t come out yet. For example, Ms. Broadwell gave a speech in which she said the Benghazi attack may have been in retaliation for the CIA holding two terrorism suspects in Libya. How did she know that, and should that have been dribbled out in a speech?

Some Europeans, of course, think we’re getting worked up about very little. A powerful man having an affair is not a news story to them. But our Puritan roots are always exposed by these cases. You would think we’d be less Puritanical as time goes on, not more. It’s ironic that we’re able to “compartmentalize” the religious beliefs of powerful individuals, but we can’t seem to do it with their sexuality.

There are real tragedies here, as both Gen. Petraeus and Ms. Broadwell have families. But beyond those private issues – which should remain so – there is a public tragedy. The country, at least in the short term, is deprived of the talents of two high-achieving individuals. For the moment, Gen. Petraeus’ career and the wealth of knowledge that he brought to his new job are functionally useless. Biographer Broadwell, for her part, is no fawning girl: she is a West Point graduate with an impressive career of her own. The Europeans have something of a point when they say that our reactions to these things are a little out of proportion. And BTW, don’t we have other things to think about in Washington right now, like fiscal cliffs?

But hey, this is America. I’m an American, and if you’re like me, you may be a little conflicted. We’re poised to lap up every sordid detail of this business so we can pass judgment on it – as we wonder whether it’s really our business at all.

I Want It Done Yesterday

It never fails. The power goes out for tens of thousands, or hundreds of thousands, or even millions – it doesn’t matter what the size of the thing is – and frustrated folks start taking it out on the evil power companies for not working hard enough to get the lights back on.

But let’s be clear. In terms of the geographic scope of the damage, the results of the Eastern weather phenomena this month rival what happened after the Japanese earthquake. Power line crews had to be brought in from all over the country to help with repairs. Some people had power restored pretty quickly; others still don’t have it. Some are without it while neighbors in the next block have it back. All recipes for frustration. As soon as the power line techs get the lights back on, they’re heroes. What were they when the customers were still in the dark? Can’t we cut the power companies a little slack in these situations? Easy for me to say, of course, as I sit in a heated home typing this.

Cut to this past week’s elections. A friend complained about how slow election officials were in counting ballots in a close congressional race and wondered who was running the show. Perhaps he forgot that in order to make things more convenient for people to vote, the absentee voting privilege was widely extended some time back. Here in California, many people waited till the last minute to return those ballots, not because they were undecided about Romney and Obama, but because of a long list of critical propositions. Though county staffs were beefed up way ahead of time, it still wasn’t enough to deal with the last-minute crunch of these mail-in ballots, which take longer to count. So convenience at the front end of the process meant inconvenience at the back.

Even for those voting at polling places on Election Day, lines were long, partly because, at least in this state’s case, the average voter spent a long time in the booth for the same reason – a long and complicated ballot. We’re all shocked by the stories about people waiting in line six hours to vote. You can already hear the sound of some politician pounding his fist on a podium demanding a full investigation of who dropped the ball. They shoulda done this, they shoulda done that.

At least it wasn’t the Middle East, where some voters stand in line never quite sure whether a bomb isn’t going to go off at the polling place. And God deliver us if we ever get a 90 percent turnout in this country.

No doubt, balls were dropped in some cases. But let’s say you’re on the receiving end of people’s frustrations. There’s always someone out there ready to judge you about how you do your business, and how they could do it much more efficiently than you if only they were in charge.

All I can say is that if there’s a new story in all of this, I haven’t heard it yet. Patience is not an American trait.

Downtime

After weeks of nasty political campaign ads, debate zingers and robocalls, you probably feel the need for an alternative. You’re in luck. Here’s another song from an SF alternative rock band…


"Firecracker," with Leila Armush and Opal Axis

This blog does not have a Shameless Commerce Division, like the public radio car guys. However, I do take care of the “shameless” part. If you like this music, though, Leila and her band wouldn’t mind a little “commerce.” There are more of their songs available at CD Baby and iTunes.

Just for the record (so to speak), I’m not being compensated for this pitch – I’m just a fan. In any case, I hope you’ll agree that this music is pretty interesting stuff. And if you like it, please spread it around!

No Change of Horses

In 1864, when President Abraham Lincoln was at his most unpopular and running for re-election, his campaign slogan was “Don’t change horses in the middle of the stream.” Whether you think invoking Lincoln here is appropriate or not, it appears the country has decided to hang on to Mr. Obama for another four years.

Even for Obama-haters, there are certain advantages to this situation. There’s no reasonable cause anymore for congressional Republicans to refuse to deal with him. For the next four, he’s what they’ve got. For Mr. Obama, there’s no reason for political timidity. He doesn’t have to worry about re-election. It opens the door to compromise – a relatively short time before the mid-term election for Congress – where the two parties could actually get something accomplished. President Obama did not win anything resembling a mandate; the Republicans didn’t substantially improve their position in Congress. It’s a wash, so there’s nothing to crow about, and crowing is a waste of time, anyway.

I have some requests for things both sides can work on going forward – after they pull us back from the “fiscal cliff.”

TAX REFORM. Mitt Romney had the germ of a great idea. The issue isn’t just about taxing the rich, which would only be a Band-Aid on top of old Band-Aids. Simplify the tax code! In the end, it will benefit everyone, taking a huge monkey off the backs of individuals and businesses alike. This is one of the keys to dealing with the deficit.

I heard a horror story on NPR this morning about something called the Alternative Minimum Tax, a regulation adopted in the 1980s to make sure wealthy people were paying their fair share of taxes. Apparently, the story said, this regulation was never indexed to inflation, and Congress has to “patch” it each year. If they fail to do so, the AMT could apply to incomes as low as $75,000 – which could mean an instant tax hike as much as 20 percent for the average middle-class family. This is one of the poster children for why the tax system needs to be overhauled – and soon.

IMMIGRATON. Solve this one once and for all. Do the best job you can sealing the borders. Then, come up with a national system that both recognizes realities and is fair to the people who’ve been playing by the rules. Mr. Obama, you promised to deal with this in your first term. You have another opportunity to make good on your promise.

HEALTH CARE. Just because Obamacare is the law, it doesn’t mean Congress and the President have to stop working on this issue. How about tort reform, for one thing? And maybe some real controls on insurance charges?

OTHER STUFF. If there’s time, why not work on getting rid of the Senate filibuster, abolishing the Electoral College, and take a whack at campaign finance reform so we don’t have to endure another election like this one?

These are all very difficult, but they can be solved if elected officials make up their minds to work together to solve them instead of posturing. The President – and the Congress -- have a real opportunity to leave a legacy.

Mr. President, if I may address you directly, enough of the electorate has decided that you are the more effective leader than Mitt Romney. So LEAD already! Get out IN FRONT of issues instead of letting them beat down your door. Put plans on the table before your opponents do. And hold more news conferences -- keep us updated; bring us along with you as you deal with these problems. We just told you we're on your side -- as long as it's the side of getting things done.

The Death Penalty

Today I get to sit down with my overlong California absentee ballot, say goodbye to the ranks of the undecided, and make a commitment to something, which for me has always been difficult. As usual, most of these measures are, in the end, about taxes, but this year, there’s one about death: Proposition 34, which calls for the abolition of the death penalty in California.

I actually listened to a debate about this when I woke up in the wee hours and put the radio on this morning. A former prison warden, who thinks the death penalty is useless and expensive, wants us to vote “yes” on this measure; a district attorney, who wants a “no” vote, says the savings figures being touted by the proponents for abolition of the penalty are illusory and that the decision shouldn’t be about money: some criminals, like serial torture/murderers, are just so evil that we have to make them go away.

My feeling about the death penalty has always been that it’s useless, largely because it’s almost never used. For these evil people the DA was talking about, it’s years and years between the crime of which they’re convicted and the actual carrying out of the sentence. It gives lawyers something to do, the victims’ families have to be constantly reminded of what happened, and at the end, they basically get to watch the perpetrators go to sleep.

Years ago, I had the bad taste to come up with the idea that if the death penalty supporters really wanted a penalty that accomplished something as a deterrent, they should figure out a way to get the job done faster, and put the event on pay-per-view cable TV, with the revenues going to the victims’ families. But someone had even worse taste than me, if you can believe it. Someone actually produced one of those late-night-cable movies on the same theme. You may be pleased to know that I’ve forgotten its name.

But all that’s beside the point. I have long believed that being forced to spend the rest of one’s life in prison is much worse than death. True, the families whose lives the perpetrators have damaged through their crimes have to deal with the knowledge that those perpetrators remain on Earth, but at least those families have the option of filling their lives with other things. In prison, the perpetrators have to live with the consequences of their crimes every waking moment.

I have also long believed that what we need is a Devil’s Island, a place in the middle of the ocean somewhere to which these perpetrators can be sent, kind of like a civil version of Guantanamo, where they could be far removed from the rest of civil society. It doesn’t have to be as harsh as Guantanamo, but it would be really “away.”

But I digress, as usual. There are two final issues. One, which has been much discussed in recent years, is that occasionally, the wrong individual is executed because of a dishonest prosecution, a feeble defense, or a wacky jury, or exculpatory evidence that surfaces too late.

And the other is that some of these hopelessly evil people the DA wants to make disappear may actually have at least the opportunity to repent of their crimes while they’re alive, in a place with no legal escape. Repentance usually involves suffering, which is sort of the point of prison in the first place, right?

Now that THAT's over, I'll move on to the other cheery propositions, like the one dealing with genetically modified foods.